Gli obiettivi prefissati per il 2050 sono bel lontani dalla realtà.
“Esiste una netta disconnessione tra gli obiettivi climatici che i governi e le aziende si sono prefissati e lo stato attuale di tecnologie energetiche convenienti e affidabili in grado di raggiungere questi obiettivi.”
Questo è ciò che ha dichiarato Fatih Birol, direttore della IEA.
La fetta più grande di questa sfida proviene dai settori di difficile decarbonizzazione o dove il progresso verso le zero emissioni si fa più lento come il trasporto marittimo, l’autotrasporto, l’aviazione e le industrie pesanti.
Le tecnologie, in realtà, esistono ma sono ancora in fase primordiale e portare delle tecniche in stato embrionale al mercato di massa può significare anni di lavoro senza alcuna garanzia di successo.
Per far raggiungere ad una tecnologia il livello di performance adatto ci possono volere dei decenni e questo è un lasso di tempo che l’umanità non può permettersi.
Molte delle tecnologie verdi sul mercato necessitano una spinta continua all’innovazione per ridurre i costi e accelerare l’implementazione. Degno di nota è che la IEA ha stimato che tre quarti delle riduzioni delle emissioni necessarie al 2050 dovrebbero venire da tecnologie che non hanno ancora raggiunto la maturità.
Attualmente, né il settore pubblico né quello privato, non riescono a stare al passo con le ambizioni climatiche e la crisi del Covid-19 non è certo stata d’aiuto.
“Un recente sondaggio della IEA ha rivelato che le aziende impegnate in tecnologie a zero emissioni, probabilmente ridurranno i loro budget per la ricerca e lo sviluppo; un chiaro segno del danno che la crisi di Covid-19 potrebbe arrecare all’innovazione energetica”, ha spiegato Birol. “Ora non è il momento di indebolire gli sforzi su questo punto essenziale. Semmai, è tempo di rafforzarli”.
Se da una parte l’emergenza pandemica in atto ha messo a repentaglio la ricerca e lo sviluppo di nuovi progetti dall’altra ha abbassato notevolmente i costi dell’energia.
A PROPOSITO DI COVID-19
In realtà non è stata solamente la crisi pandemica in atto a far abbassare i prezzi delle energie, nonostante la ricerca e lo sviluppo siano comunque più lenti di quanto prospettati inizialmente, grazie a questi i costi si sono, ovviamente, ridotti. Proprio per questo l’energia rinnovabile è uno degli investimenti più intelligenti ed economici che i governi possano prevedere per la ripresa dal Covid-19.
A dimostrarlo, numeri alla mano, è il report Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2020. Il documento, pubblicato pochi giorni fa, è frutto del programma ambientale delle Nazioni Unite (UNEP), del centro di collaborazione sul clima Frankfurt School – UNEP e di Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). Attraverso le sue 80 pagine, il rapporto analizza tendenze di investimento e costi delle energie rinnovabili, inserendo gli impegni assunti da paesi e società per il prossimo decennio.
Gli autori rimarcano come il costo d’installazione degli impianti rinnovabili abbia raggiunto nuovi minimi. Nel 2019 (escluse le dighe idroelettriche) sono stati installati 184 GW di nuova capacità energetica: 20 GW in più del 2018. Eppure in termini di investimento la spesa per la nuova capacità è costata appena l’1% in più.
CONCLUSIONI
Sebbene i risultati rappresentino buoni progressi, il rapporto rileva che “c’è spazio per fare molto di più”. Nazioni e società hanno assunto impegni per il prossimo decennio di circa 826 GW di nuova capacità rinnovabile entro il 2030 (escluso l’idroelettrico), ad un costo di circa mille miliardi di dollari.
Tuttavia, gli sforzi promessi sono molto al di sotto di quanto necessario per limitare l’aumento delle temperature globali sotto i 2°C; il target richiederebbe, solo per questo decennio, l’aggiunta di circa 3.000 GW. E risultano ancor più lontani, se si considera l’obiettivo di 1,5°C.
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When I initially commented I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I recieve four emails with the exact same comment. There has to be a way you can remove me from that service? Many thanks!